Consumer Sentiment: Do Americans See Brighter Days Ahead?
每个月, researchers at the University of Michigan ask hundreds of consumers what they think about present market conditions, 就业市场, their personal finances and buying intentions, as well as the prospects for the general economy in the future. (Samples are statistically designed to be representative of all American households.) Their answers to about 50 questions are captured in the Index of Consumer Sentiment, which includes the Index of Current Economic Conditions and the Index of Consumer Expectations.
在长时间的悲观读数之后, this closely watched gauge of consumer confidence turned more optimistic at the beginning of 2024. 从2023年11月到2024年1月, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index improved 29%, 这是自1991年以来最大的两个月增长. 2024年3月, the index reached its highest point since mid-2021 before dipping again over the following three months. Year-ahead inflation expectations dropped from 4.5% to 3.在同一时期为0%.1
企业, 投资者, and policymakers — including Federal Reserve officials who must determine when and how much to lower interest rates — pay attention to how consumers are feeling, because household spending accounts for more than two-thirds of all U.S. 经济活动.2
复杂的信号
在过去, consumer sentiment has been a reliable indicator of the direction of the economy in the near term, with the index rising during periods of expansion and falling sharply at the beginning of recessions (see chart). Yet, the 2022–2023 readings were out-of-sync with an improving economy.
2022年6月, sentiment reached a record low — worse than readings during the pandemic and the 2007–2009 Great Recession — and they remained weak through most of 2023.3 但在2022年中期的暴跌之后, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth strengthened and grew a healthy 3.2023年为1%，高于0.7% in 2022.4 The unemployment rate remained at historically low levels below 4% over the same period.5 坚实的劳动力市场支撑了这两项指标.7% increase in consumer spending that was the main driver of GDP growth in 2023.6
Why did it take so long for consumers’ outlooks to reflect this positive economic data? Confidence could have been shaken, in part, by a widely forecasted U.S. 经济衰退从未到来. And many people may have felt uneasy about inflamed geopolitical tensions around the world, 包括俄罗斯与乌克兰的战争, and/or the contentious political environment in the United States.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
阴影条表示衰退时期.
资料来源:美国.S. 经济分析局，2024
通货膨胀的伤疤
Another possible explanation for the dis连接 between consumer confidence and economic performance is the lingering financial and emotional effects of high inflation. While consumers can breathe a sigh of relief that inflation has retreated (from an annual rate of 9.从2022年6月的1%降至3%.3% in May 2024), they are still paying much higher prices than they were before the pandemic.7
+, the Fed’s interest-rate hikes made borrowing to buy big-ticket items like cars and homes much more expensive, and extreme unaffordability put home ownership out of reach for many Americans. It could take quite some time for consumers to get over their sticker shock and adjust mentally to higher price levels, as well as for their wages and purchasing power to fully catch up to the cost of living.
The confidence surge at the beginning of 2024 coincided with a rising stock market and declining mortgage rates, both of which may have raised consumers’ hopes for the future. And even though consumer sentiment has improved, the index level is still well below the pre-Covid peak in 2020.8
Fed officials and many economists now expect the United States to avoid a recession in 2024, but spending and growth are expected to slow, 失业率可能会上升, as the full impact of high interest rates strains the finances of households and businesses.9 There could also be some unexpected bumps in the road as the Fed works to bring inflation the rest of the way down to its 2% target.